Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Tuesday's Free MLB Sports Picks

Jim Feist
MLB | Aug 25
Arizona D-Backs vs. San Francisco Giants
Total
7 un-125
at BOOKM
> 5h.
A pair of lousy offensive teams meet, and a pair of aces on the hill. These teams rank 21 and 26 in baseball in runs scored. Arizona righty Dan Haren (12-8) doesn't wal anyone (26 in 174 innings) and averages close to 9 Ks per 9 innings. San Fran righty Matt Cain (12-4, 2.43 ERA) has really blossomed this season, with excellent control. Don't look for many runs, play the Diamondbacks/Giants Under the total.

-=TOP PLAY=-
MLB | Aug 25
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Chicago White Sox
+270
at 5DIMES
> 2h.
1* Take the Chicago White Sox on the Moneyline, We are getting solid value here Tuesday night with the White Sox who send Freddy Garcia (0-1, 10.38) to the mound since he is 7-2 over 14 career starts against the Red Sox. The White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games after a loss and they are also 6-1 in their last 7 games after allowing 10 or more runs in their previous game. The White Sox are 21-6 in their last 27 games in game 2 of a series and they are also a perfect 5-0 in Garcia's last 5 starts as an underdog including 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road dog. The Red Sox are just 7-17 in their last 24 games when playing a team with a winning record and there is simply too much value here to pass up Tuesday night so take the Chicago White Sox as my MLB Free Play for Tuesday night.

Vernon Croy was 100% perfect yesterday with his premium plays and his 8-3 Run continues with his Tuesday Night MLB Smash that is backed by a 100% perfect angle! Get on it now!

MLB | Aug 25
Arizona D-Backs vs. San Francisco Giants
Total
7 un-133
at 5DIMES
> 5h.
San Francisco is 40-19-4 UNDER their last 63 games vs. teams with a losing record. San Francisco is 7-1 UNDER their last 8 games as home favorites. The Giants are 10-1 UNDER with Matt Cain if he is off a quality start in his last outing. The Giants are 7-2-1 UNDER their last 10 meetings with Diamondbacks. Arizona is 29-14-2 UNDER their last 45 games as road underdogs and they are 4-1-1 UNDER following a day off. The Diamondbacks are 4-1-1 UNDER in the last 6 starts made by Dan Haren. The righthander has a 6-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Cain vs. Haren)

MLB | Aug 25
Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
+1½-140
at SIA
> 3h.
Free Play for 8/25/09
1 Unit on Cleveland Indians +1.5 -140
Cleveland took down the Royals 10-6 last night and I like them again tonight as Greinke is being overvalued. There's no doubt that he's a fine pitcher, but the Indians are playing much better baseball right now and Greinke has not been getting any run support. In fact, the Royals are 1-8 in Greinke's last 9 starts and 0-6 in his last 6 starts vs. the American League Central. KC is also 0-10 against the money line after allowing 8 runs or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings with the Royals. Masterson is coming off a gem against the Angels 5 days ago and I expect him to be good enough to get the win against the struggling Royals.

MLB | Aug 25
Arizona D-Backs vs. San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
-140
at BODOG
> 5h.
The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants square off in a three-game set at AT&T Park with the first game set for Tuesday night and a first pitch at 10:15PM Eastern Time. This will be the final series of a ten game road trip for the Diamondbacks who are 61-82 (-21.4) in road games the last 2 seasons and 2-8 (-7.8) after 7 or more consecutive road games this season. San Fran returns home off an eleven game road trip of their own.

Arizona is 55-70 (-17.8) on the season overall and out of the playoff hunt while San Francisco is 6.5 games behind the division leading Dodgers and 3.5 back of second place Colorado with a record of 67-57 (+10.1). The Giants have been extremely tough at home posting a record of 39-20 (+15.5) this season. That�s not good news for this Arizona team as they are 42-68 (-29.6) when playing against a team with a winning record the last two seasons.

The difference in the two teams can easily be explained when you see that San Fran is ranked 1 in pitching with an ERA of 3.53 with opponents hitting .237 and have an OBP of .312 against them. The Diamondbacks are ranked 15 in pitching with an ERA of 4.33 with opponents hitting .264 and have an OBP of .329 against them.

At the plate we see much of the same with the Giants ranked 16 in hitting with a batting average of .261 averaging 4.0 runs per game with an OPS of .700. Arizona is ranked 28 in hitting with a batting average of .252 averaging 4.4 runs per game and an OPS of .742. The Diamondbacks have really struggled of late at the plate and we know they are 40-54 (-21.9) after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span the last 2 seasons.

Arizona will send right-hander Dan Haren to the bump with his 12-8 record and ERA of 2.74. He has a record of 6-3 with a 3.41 ERA on the road this season but recently he has struggled. Haren is coming off a horrible performance at Philly in his last start where he pitched for 5 innings giving up 6 earned runs on 9 hits including three homeruns in an 8 to 1 loss. Prior to that start he won at home versus the Dodgers 4 to 1 but his previous road start saw him lose in Washington 5 to 2 throwing for 6 innings giving up 5 earned runs on 7 hits and two homeruns.

The Giants will send right-hander Matt Cain to the hill with his 12-4 record and ERA of 2.43. When Cain takes the bump at home he is 6-2 with an ERA of 2.37 and the Giants are 10-2 in his 12 home starts this season. He lost his last start throwing for 8 innings in Cincinnati giving up 1 earned run on 8 hits with 3 strikeouts in a 2 to 1 loss.

On the technical front we have two MLB Systems that are active for tonight�s game. The first tells us to Play AGAINST MLB (NL) road underdogs who allow 4.8 or more runs per game against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or better over his last five starts. This system is 108-34 over the last five seasons for +49.1 units. The second system tells us to Play ON MLB (NL) favorites in this price range who average scoring 4.1 runs or less per game facing a starter whose ERA is 3.70 or better and a bullpen who has a WHIP of 1.350 or better on the season. This system has a record of 41-10 since 1997 for +27.6 units of profit.

With significant support both fundamentally and technically for the host we will back them here as the Giants continue their pursuit of a playoff berth and the Diamondbacks begin their plans for the offseason.

Graded Selection: 2* San Francisco Giants 3 Arizona Diamondbacks 1

MLB | Aug 25
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
-133
at BODOG
> 2h.
Tampa Bay @ Toronto 7:05 PM EST
Play On: Tampa Bay (Shields/Cecil) Listed

Tampa Bay is 68-56 on the season while Toronto comes in with a 57-66 overall record this year. Toronto is only 16-33 against division opponents this year. Tampa Bay has won 7 of their last 9 games overall. Toronto has lost 7 of their last 9 games overall. Tampa Bay bullpen has a 3.65 ERA overall this year and a 3.82 ERA on the road this season. James Shields has a 3.81 ERA overall this year. Tampa Bay has won 10 out of 13 games against Toronto this season. Tampa Bay is sitting 3 games behind Boston in the American League Wild Card race. It's getting down to must win games for this team. We'll recommend a small play on Tampa Bay tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

MLB | Aug 25
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
-250
at BOOKM
> 2h.
Free MLB Play

MLB | Aug 25
Arizona D-Backs vs. San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
-125
at 5DIMES
> 5h.
Free Play for August 25, 2009
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -125
I know the Giants played a late one last night, but they'll be hungry to get back in the win column following their 3rd straight loss. Returning home and sending Matt Cain to the mound figures to be a winning recipe. Cain has been brilliant this season, especially at home, where the Giants have won 10 of his 12 starts and he has posted an ERA of 2.37. Haren had a great first half for the D-backs but he has started his normal late season slide. In fact, he's just 2-2 with a 5.88 ERA overall this month. The Diamondbacks are 1-9 in their last 10 road games and 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days and 4-0 in Cain's last 4 starts vs. the National League West. Bet the Giants.

NFL | Aug 29
Indianapolis Colts vs. Detroit Lions
Indianapolis Colts
-3+100
at 5DIMES
> 3d.
The Colts lost their Preseason opener at home, 3-13, against Minnesota as starting QB Manning didn't see much playing time and back-up QB Sorgi was injured a few days before the game. Last week, Indianapolis rebounded with a solid 23-15 victory against a tough Eagles squad as QB Manning completed 10 of 14 passes for 2 Touchdowns and new back-up QB Curtis Painter looked much more comfortable while going 11 of 19 for a 116 yards. With only 4 games on the exhibition schedule, week # 3 will be the most action that QB Manning will see and he should shred the Detroit Lions defense, which allowed a Cleveland Browns squad that hadn't scored a TD in their previous games to put up 27 points on the scoreboard last Saturday! In fact, the Lions went 0-16 last season and their defense hasn't improved much as Atlanta scored 26 points during the first week of Preseason. Lay the points with the road Favored Colts as we find them at 6-1 ATS when playing their 3rd game of Preseason.

7* Play On Indianapolis

MLB | Aug 25
Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
+150
at SIA
> 3h.
2-0 Smooth Tuesday's Pack...Siganture MLB 500* UnderDog Paid Bomb....

The Tribe stepping up & playing way better as of late, we note that the Indians a 60% winning prop the last 35 games. look at the 8.0 runs and .323 clip at the plate

MLB | Aug 25
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
-132
at 5DIMES
> 3h.
The Cincinnati Reds hung in the NL Central race for quite awhile, but they have totally fallen apart. The Reds are just 8-24 in their last 32 games and are going through experimentation right now, looking at prospects for next year. It has gotten so bad for the Reds that in their last 29 losses, they would be just 3-26 to a runline of +1.5. The Brewers have been outstanding behind Jeff Suppan. When the Brew Crew has allowed two runs or less in their previous game, they have turned in a 13-4 mark in that situation with Suppan on the bump. The Reds are heading nowhere, the lineup is cold and they are simply playing out the string. They have also dropped their last four games played in Milwaukee, and I think that goes to five tonight. I'm going with Milwaukee here.

MLB | Aug 25
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves
San Diego Padres
+235
at SIA
> 2h.

Ryan has massed another successful MLB campaign and here is his top rated 15* Total play for the month of August. This play, as is all of his releases, is reinforced by extensive game dependent information. Plus, you get a 5* Monster play on the same game FREE. Join him and win BIG!



Ai Simulator 3* graded play on SD as they face the Braves set to start at 7:10 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 124-156 making 80 units since 1997. Play against home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season, in the second half of the season. The average play has been a +190 dog. This is analogous to playing Black Jack and being paid $1.90 for every winning $1.00 hand played. Based on this system you would have played 280 hands, won only 44% of them and still walked out with a whopping 80 dollar/per$ wagered profit. So, of course if you played $100 per hand you would be leaving with 8K. That will never happen at the casino, but this system will afford you that opportunity by playing MLB over the course of several seasons. Here is a second system that has gone 35-35 for 50% winners making 41.5 units with the average play a +219 dog since 1997. Play on road dogs with a money line of +200 or more that are good fielding teams averaging <=0.6 errors/game on the season and after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games. Take SD.


MLB | Aug 25
Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
+145
at SPBOOK
> 3h.
FREE PLAY
1 Unit on Cleveland Indians +145
The Tribe is worth a 1 Unit wager at this price tonight when you consider how poorly the Royals are playing. I know KC sends Greinke to the mound, but the Royals are only 1-8 in his starts in the 2nd half of the season, losing by an average of 2 runs per game. Plus, KC is 0-10 after allowing 8 runs or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons, losing by 3.6 runs per game on average in these spots. Masterson looked great in his last start against the Angels and is 1-0 with an ERA of 1.42 and a WHIP of 0.948 in 1 career start against KC. The Indians are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 while the Royals are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a favorite and 6-25 in their last 31 home games. Take the Tribe.

MLB | Aug 25
Houston Astros vs. St Louis Cardinals
Total
7½ un-120
at BOOKM
> 3h.
Free MLB Over-Under

MLB | Aug 25
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Philadelphia Phillies
-173
at 5DIMES
> 2h.
Free MLB Play

MLB | Aug 25
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
-1½-150
at BOOKM
> 2h.
On Tuesday the free play is the Boston Redsox on the Run line.Game number 922 at 7:10 eastern.The Redsox fit a tremendous 27-4 system tonight.Howeer no one in their right mind should lay -310.The run line though looks to be a good value.What we want to do is play on Home favorites of -200 or higher off a home favored win of 2 or more runs scoring 10 or more runs on 10+ hits.If tonights opponent scored 5 + runs.The system on the run line is still a very profitable 21-10.The Redsox are 6-0 as a home favorite in this range while the Whitesox are 0-3 as a road dog in this range.Boston has J.Lester going tonight and he is 8-3 with a 3.33 era at home this year.Over his last 3 starts he has a 2.14 era.Tonight he opposes F.Garcia on the comeback trail.In his first start he went 4+ innings and allowed 5 runs.He will have his work cut out for him tonight vs a Redsox team that is averaging over 8 runs per game and hitting well over .300 in the last 7 games.On Tueasday I have a 13-2 Totals system that averages 13 runs per game.Its the National league total of the month.Jump on and cash out on this easy winner.Mlb totals have been white hot.For the free play take the Redsox on the run line bol RV-

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