Friday, July 3, 2009

Friday's Free Expert MLB Picks

Steve Merril
MLB | Jul 03
Arizona D-Backs vs. Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
-130
at BOOKM


FREE PLAY

The Rockies return home to host Arizona after a nine game road trip thru California. Going for the Rockies is Jorge De La Rosa who is 4-7 with a 5.64 ERA this season. De La Rosa is coming off a solid effort in Oakland going six innings and giving up two runs on five hits, while striking out five and walking only two hitters. De La Rosa is 1-2 with a 3.08 ERA all time against Arizona, having lost to them 2-0 in April on the road. In that game he gave up just two runs and six hits in 6.7 innings pitched. Arizona hits .224 against De La Rosa with Chris Snyder (2-11), Stephen Drew (2-10), Chris Young (2-9), Chad Tracy (1-6) and Mark Reynolds (1-6) struggling the most. Arizona is 8-14 against lefties this season averaging just 3.6 runs per game and hitting only .224.

Arizona will send Max Scherzer to the hill where he's 5-5 with a 3.67 ERA. In his last three starts he's given up 7 earned runs in 16.3 innings pitched going 2-1 in that span. He's faced Colorado once losing 3-2 to them in Colorado. In that game he gave up three runs and seven hits in six innings. Garrett Atkins (2-3), Clint Barmes (1-3), Chris Ianetta (1-3) and Brad Hawpe (1-2) had the most success against him in that game. At home Colorado averages 5.8 runs per game and hit .279 as a team. The Rockies are also a fantastic 21-5 SU in their past 26 games.


MLB | Jul 03
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Tampa Bay Rays
-135
at BETUS

Info Plays Friday, July 3rd Free Play:

3* on Tampa Bay Rays -135
(Listing Kazmir and Hunter)

Reasons why Tampa Bay wins:

1.) Yes, Scott Kazmir has struggled this season. But he’ll get back on track tonight when facing one of his favorite opponents. Kazmir has owned the Texas Rangers, going 4-0 with a miniscule 2.06 ERA in his career against them. The Rays are a perfect 7-0 in Kazmir’s 7 career starts against the Rangers. The Rays are a great bounce-back team, and that’s proven by the fact that Tampa Bay is 42-18 in their last 60 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their preview games. This is a big letdown spot for Texas coming off their series win against their AL West rival in the L.A. Angels.

2.) System Play. We’ll Play On - Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (TAMPA BAY) - with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games, playing on Friday. This is a 63-17 ML System hitting 78.8% over the last 5 seasons. Kazmir will come in and shut the Rangers down, and the Rays’ bullpen will shut the door. Bet Tampa Bay on the road.

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MLB | Jul 03
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Total
10½ ov-115
at BETUS

Martin’s Friday MLB Free Play:

1 Unit on Rays/Rangers O 10.5
(Listing Kazmir and Hunter)

Scott Kazmir has lost it this season, and Tommy Hunter is about to get lit up by this hot Rays’ lineup. Kazmir is 4-4 with a 7.28 ERA in 2009, giving up 43 earned runs in 50.7 innings of work. Tommy Hunter has only made two starts for the Rangers, but he’s given up 14 hits and 3 walks in just 11.7 innings. Two of those 14 hits were home runs, and he’s faced two of the worst lineups in baseball in the A’s and Padres. Tampa Bay has won 7 of their last 8 games and they are really starting to hit the ball, which doesn’t bode well for Hunter and the Rangers. Tampa is hitting .287 with a .384 OBP in their last 7 games. The OVER is 9-1 in Kazmir’s 10 starts this season. The OVER is 12-3 in Tampa Bay’s last 15 games following an off day. Texas is 13-4 OVER after scoring 8 or more runs in each of their last 2 games over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 11-1 in Kazmir’s last 12 starts with a Total Set of 9.0-10.5 runs. The OVER is 14-2 in Kazmir’s last 16 starts as a favorite. Finally, the OVER is 4-0 in Kazmir’s last 4 starts against the Rangers. Cash in with the OVER 10.5 runs.

10-1 (91%) Run on MLB 5 Unit Top Plays! Premium clients have been making a killing with these top plays and you can too Friday! I am releasing my 5 Unit NL West GAME OF THE YEAR tonight to continue this scorching hot run! I am up +1227 Units on the bases in '09 after finishing last season as the 2008 MLB World Handicapping CHAMPION! If you need a proven winner you can count on through the World Series, then sign up for my 2009 MLB Season Package for $299.99!

-=TOP PLAY=-
MLB | Jul 03
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
-136
at 5DIMES

Take the L.A. Dodgers on the Moneyline, This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Dodgers have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight with Hiroki Kuroda (2-4, 3.77). The Padres are just 1-9 in their last 10 games in game 1 of a series and they are just 4-11 in their last 15 games as an underdog. Kuroda has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of just 3.20 over 3 starts and Chad Gaudin (4-6, 4.97 ERA) has struggled overall this season with an ERA of 5.11 over 12 starts. Gaudin got lit up in his last outing against the Dodgers back on May.3 giving up 6 earned runs over 5.7 innings while Kuroda pitched solid in his only start against the Padres this season allowing just 4 hits and 1 earned run over 5.7 innings. The Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games against the Padres and they are 4-1 in Kuroda's last 5 starts against them. Take the L.A. Dodgers as my Free MLB Play for Friday Night.

Vernon Croy was 100% perfect again on the bases yesterday and his massive 100% MLB Run continues right here with his Friday Night MLB Smash that is backed by a 100% perfect angle so get on it now!

MLB | Jul 03
St Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Total
9½ ov-110
at BOOKM

Great day yesterday as Craig went 2-0 and he is 4-2 with his top 5 star plays of the day the last 7 days. Don't miss todays top play as Craig's top play is his 5 star Home Run Play of the WEEK, this play has been hot hot hot going 5-3 the last 30 days!! GUARANTEED WINNER! Now today's free play is a 4 star play for Craig that is very strong trends!

Betting Trends

-Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.

-Over is 5-2-1 in Cardinals last 8 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.

-Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.

-Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Cincinnati.

Recently both of these teams have struggled at the plate, but no matter what when these two teams play runs follow. In fact so far this year when these teams play in Cincy they have averaged 12 runs per game. Homer Bailey goes for Cincy today and he has been horrible all year. He averages over a walk per inning which will really come back to haunt him today. Pinero goes for STL today and he has been pretty good as of late. Would expect him to go about 6 innings and give up three runs. Both bullpens will be called on for extensive innings and would imagine that both will give up 2 runs each. As it gets warmer in Cincy the balls fly out at breakneck speed would imagine that STL goes yard at least three times. Expect a really high score easily over 12 runs!! SCORE STL 7 - CIN 5

Don't forget get Craig's Top play for Friday: HOME RUN 5 star TOP PLAY OF WEEK!!


MLB | Jul 03
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Florida Marlins
Florida Marlins
-154
at 5DIMES

Pittsburgh @ Florida 6:10 PM EST
Play On: Florida (Morton/Volstad) Listed

Pittsburgh comes in with a 36-43 overall record this year while Florida is 41-39 on the season. Florida has won 3 in a row and 8 of their last 11 games overall. Pittsburgh is only 14-26 on the road this year. Charlie Morton is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA overall vs Florida since 1997. Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass. Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 overall. Pirates are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. Marlins are 8-0 in their last 8 home games. Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Marlins are 8-0 in their last 8 games on grass. Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Marlins are 12-2 in their last 14 games as a home favorite. Marlins are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a win. Marlins are 6-1 in their last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Marlins are 6-1 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. Marlins are 13-3 in their last 16 games as a favorite. Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. We'll recommend a small play on Florida tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

MLB | Jul 03
Arizona D-Backs vs. Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
-125
at 5DIMES

FREE PLAY
1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -125
I'll back the red hot Rockies, who have won 21 of their last 26, at home against the struggling D-backs, who have dropped 7 of their last 8 tonight. De La Rosa has had his fair share of struggles on the mound this season for Colorado, but I like his chances tonight against an Arizona club averaging only 3.6 runs per game against southpaw starters. In fact, the Diamondbacks are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter and just 8-14 against lefties this season. Scherzer has pitched pretty well for Arizona, but he hasn't gotten enough run support. As a result, the Diamondbacks are juts 3-8 in his last 11 road starts. Rockies take care of business at home tonight.

MLB | Jul 03
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
Seattle Mariners
+110
at BODOG

We catch a lot of value in this game as this one is almost opposite of most games where the teams control the line and not the starters. Tim Wakefield have been unbeatable at home as hew is 6-0 with the Red Sox going 7-0 in his seven starts at Fenway. However unbeaten and dominating are two different things and Wakefield has been far from the latter. He has a 3.55 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in those seven games which is definitely good but certainly not great. Boston has averaged 8.1 rpg in his home starts so that definitely has something to do with the record. Getting eight runs tonight will definitely be a challenge against Felix Hernandez who is pitching lights out of late. He has tossed seven straight quality outings while allowing one or no runs in six of those games. His ERA over this seven-game stretch is a remarkable 0.85 and he has simply been in the zone. In his career against Boston Hernandez is 3-1 with a 3.05 ERA and that improves to 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two starts at Fenway Park which includes his one-hit shutout three years ago. Those memories will definitely help him out tonight. The Mariners are 12-4 in Hernandez’s last 16 road starts against a team with a winning record. Seattle is 9-2 in its last 11games when its opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. The Red Sox meanwhile are 1-7 in Wakefield’s last eight starts against the Mariners. Seattle also falls into a solid underdog situation. Play on underdogs that are starting a pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 or better over his last five starts and with a bullpen whose season ERA is 3.33 or better. This situation is 31-14 (68.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Seattle Mariners


July started the same way June ended and that was with a horrible beat with Baltimore on Wednesday and then Padres went down yesterday. There is no shying away from the recent rough stretch but Fargo is ready for a big SUMMER RUN! Join him to kick off the holiday weekend with one BIG WINNER backed by a 142-92 (60.7%) Power Situation! Start the weekend with a big win!

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