| MLB | Jul 16 New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves -175 at SPBOOK | > 7h. |
| Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Atlanta as they host the Mets set to start at 7:10 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 37-8 making 25.3 units since 2003. Play against road dogs with a money line of +100 or higher and is a poor power team hitting <=0.9 HR's/game facing a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start and with a cold starting pitcher posting a WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 3 starts. Mets had a very disappointing first half and things are not projected to change based on the AiS grading and the supporting cast of angles. Note that the Mets are just 12-28 (-17.4 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons; 5-13 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in road games after scoring 9 runs or more over the last 2 seasons; 47-61 (-29.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. Mets starter Perez has been horrific posting an 8.78 season ERA and 10.03 over his last 3 starts. What is truly alarming is the fact that he has allowed more walks than innings pitched. For the season he has allowed 28 BB in 26.7 IP and over the past 3 starts allowed 16 BB while recording just 7 K’s in 11.7 IP. Atlanta starter Lowe is a down in the zone type of pitcher getting far more ground ball outs than fly ball outs. He has allowed just 6 HR in 112.7 IP on the season. Take the Braves. | ||
| MLB | Jul 16 Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers -140 at SPBOOK | > 10h. |
| Coming off a 4-1 week and 19-9 our last 28 Free Picks given to you! We are ready for the 2nd Half of the MLB season as the first half has been a blast! Today's Free Pick Dodgers -140 (1DIME) (1-5SCALE) Wandy Rodriguez on the road = not as good as home! Randy Wolf will be going for the Dodgers and he has a 0.98 WHIP and a 2.45ERA off his last three starts. The Dodgers are 13-3 in his last 16 home starts. They are 11-2 in his last 13 home starts when he is the favorite. He owns Berkman (3-22) over his career and Berkman has been the reason why the Astros are playing better ball as of late. Astros are 7-19 in the last 26 road starts vs. a winning team with Wandy on the mound. The Dodgers own a .284 career average vs. Wandy and they are hitting .300 on the season at home vs. LHP. | ||
-=TOP PLAY=-
| MLB | Jul 16 LAA Angels vs. Oakland Athletics | LAA Angels +120 at SPBOOK | > 10h. |
| Take the L.A. Angels on the Moneyline, We are getting great value here Thursday night with the Angels who have Ervin Santana (1-5, 7.81 ERA) on the mound since he has owned the Athletics in the past with an ERA of just 1.38 over 13 starts against them. Santana is throwing 90 to 94 M.P.H. consistently and he is 9-1 lifetime against the Athletics so I look for him to have a solid outing pitching with several days rest. Jason Giambi is just 1 for 14 (.71) against Santana while Jack Cust is just 2 for 10 (.200) against him so I look for Santana to have plenty of confidence coming into this game after a few rough outings. The Athletics starter Dallas Braden (7-7, 3.12) is 0-2 against the Angels this season with an ERA of 4.50 and the Angels batters have a big advantage since they have faced Braden twice this season while averaging 8.5 hits per game against him. The Angels are a red hot 10-1 in their last 11 games in game 1 of a series and they are 9-1 in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record. The Angels are 10-2 in their last 12 road games against a lefty starter and they are 8-1 in their last 9 games as an underdog including a perfect 6-0 as an underdog of +110 to +150. Oakland is just 3-11 in Braden's last 14 starts as a favorite and they are 0-5 in their last 5 home games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Angels get it done on the road tonight without Vladimir Guerrero (knee) and Torii Hunter (strained adductor) just like they did when they swept the Yankees. Take the L.A. Angels as my MLB Free Play for Thursday night. Vernon Croy is ready to crush the books with his huge Thursday Night MLB Smash that is backed by a 100% perfect angle so make sure you hit it hard. Get on it now! | ||
| MLB | Jul 16 Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds | Milwaukee Brewers +104 at JAMAICA | > 7h. |
| Hope everyone enjoyed the all star rest! Now we are back to kill the books. Craig is coming back in a big way today, he has his 5 star HOME RUN PLAY of the WEEK. This play has been hot for Craig going 4-2 the last 6 weeks. Also Craig has a very strong free play in the NL today. Betting Trends -Brewers are 6-1 in Loopers last 7 starts vs. National League Central. -Brewers are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. -Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. -Reds are 0-7 in Baileys last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Pretty hard to imagine that an unproven starter like Bailey is a favorite today. Well we are not fooled we are going with the Brewers and Looper today. Looper has been consitent all year he holds team to under 4 runs per game in about 6.5 innings. If he can repeat that performance today they will win. MIL has a great lineup and verse Bailey who gives up a ton of walks and HR's watch out. MIL will score at least 7 runs today and win going away. SCORE: MIL 7 - CIN 4 | ||
| MLB | Jul 16 Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | Houston Astros +131 at JAMAICA | > 10h. |
| While the Dodgers are in excellent shape in the National League West, the Astros are far from out of anything in the National League Central. They trail the Cardinals by just 3.5 games and they are in better shape there than they are in the Wild Card race where they are five games behind the Giants. Houston won four of five games prior to the break and it looks to start strong in the second half. The Astros send their most consistent pitcher to the hill as Mandy Rodriguez had an excellent first half. He posted a 2.96 ERA through 18 first half starts with the Astros going 12-6 in those games. His numbers on the road are not as good but he was hurt by only two bad stats in nine road outings. He allowed three runs or fewer in those other seven games. The Dodgers counter with Randy Wolf who is arguably the biggest surprise in the National League. He has a 3.45 ERA and 1.17 WHIP which are his lowest numbers since 2002. While it would be a great story for him to keep it up throughout the entire season, I just do not see it happening. He has been average at home with a 4.04 ERA and he has yet to pick up a win in nine home outings. Houston is hitting .291 against left-handed pitching including .311 over its last 10 games and both of those averages top Los Angeles. The Astros are 4-1 in their last five games against left-handed starters. Houston also falls into a very solid contrarian underdog situation. Play against National League favorites of less than -150 that have an on-base percentage of .340 or better and starting a pitcher who has an ERA of 2.50 or better over his last three starts going up against a starting pitcher with a WHIP between 1.25 and 1.30. This situation is 28-13 (68.3 percent) since 1997 with the average run differential being +1.4 rpg in favor of the underdog. 3* Houston Astros
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| MLB | Jul 16 Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies -125 at JAMAICA | > 10h. |
| Petco Park will be the site of a four-game set between the host San Diego Padres and the visiting Colorado Rockies. The Rockies look to continue their recent success winning five of their last seven heading into the break. They will send right-hander Aaron Cook to the bump with his 8-3 W/L record and ERA of 3.98. Cook has dominated the Padres over his career posting a record of 12-4 W/L with an ERA of 2.37 in twenty-two appearances, twenty of those were starts. His success over the Padres has also come on the road going 5-1 W/L his last eight trips here with an ERA of 1.61 although he didn’t earn a win here on May 5th despite pitching eight strong innings, allowing only one run on five hits as the Rockies lost in ten innings by a score of 2 to 1. Cook is 6-1 W/L his last 7 starts overall and 4-0 W/L his last 4 starts on the highway. Colorado is 4-0 W/L on the road versus a team with a losing record, 11-1 W/L their last 12 road games facing a right-handed starter and 15-4 W/L when facing a losing team overall. The Padres will counter with right-hander Chad Gaudin who is 4-7 W/L on the season with an ERA of 5.15. He is 1-3 W/L when he takes the hill at home with an ERA of 6.14. Gaudin is 2-5 W/L his last 7 trips to the bump this season. The Padres are 17-38 W/L when installed as an underdog, 8-21 W/L their last 29 games overall and 7-19 W/L their last 26 versus right-handed starters including 4-0 W/L their last 4 at home. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Rockies win by 2.5 runs and our Math Model also signals a play on the visitor as they get the win by 2.87 runs. Lay the short price as the Rockies continue their run at the playoffs and overwhelm the host Padres on Thursday night. Graded Selection: 2* Colorado Rockies 5 San Diego Padres 2 | ||
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