| MLB | Jul 31 Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | Total 8½ un-120 at BETUS | > 2h. |
| Take UNDER 8.5 WAS/PIT 2DIME FREE PLAY (1-5SCALE) After losing my 1st POD last night on the Phillies in 12 chances. I continued my successful free pick run at 27-13 in my last 40 given to you! Here tonight I'm confident and it will be a larger free pick release than usual. We've got John Lannan vs. Ross Ohlendorf here tonight. The line opened up at -125 in favor of the Nationals. In my opinion there is no reason why this line should go the other way given how Lannan has pitched this year but the line has dropped to -114 despite 55% of the public being on the Nats. Vegas is expecting a close game and it is because of the pitching here tonight. I can state Lannan's stats as I did in the Pitching report today. He has a 2.70 ERA in his last 5 starts and he's got 1 start vs. Pirates this year going 7 innings and giving up 1ER. He'll face a lineup without Wilson and Sanchez today as this team continues to get weaker and weaker. The Pirates are scoring 0.78 runs per 9 innings in their last 5 and it's going to take them a while to gel and establish a team that can find it's groove again. To me as it stands today the Pirates are the worst team in baseball. However, Vegas is moving the line the other way and it is for no other reason than Ross Ohlendorf. Pirates are 1-7 in their last 8 starts vs. LH starter. Ohlendorf has the 6-2 record and a 3.39 ERA at home this year including a 1.80 ERA in his last 4 home starts. He faces the Nationals who do have a decent lineup but still on the road they just aren't a good hitting team. Pirates are under 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a losing team as he seems to get most of his quality starts against the bottom half of the MLB. The Nats are Under 6-0 in their last 6 as favorites -110 to -150 and they are under 18-4-1 with Lannan on 4 days rest. They are under 12-1 in their last 13 overall games as favorites for the Nats, and they are under 7-1 in their last 8 on the road. The Pirates are under 11-2 in their last 13 as a home dog and 8-1 in their last 10 following an off day. | ||
-=TOP PLAY=-
| MLB | Jul 31 Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles OFF at BODOG | > 2h. |
| Take the Baltimore Orioles on the Moneyline, This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and I look for the Orioles to hit John Smoltz (1-4, 7.04 ERA) hard tonight. Smoltz has struggled over 6 starts this season with an ERA of 7.04 and pitching with just 4 days rest will not help him tonight. The Orioles lit up Smoltz in his last outing as he allowed 9 hits and 6 earned runs over just 5 innings and I look for the Orioles to hit him hard again tonight. There is a reason why the Atlanta Braves departed with Smoltz, his fastball is not as good as it use to be and he has given up 42 hits over just 30.7 innings this season. The Red Sox are just 1-5 in Smoltz's last 6 starts and they are just 1-4 in their last 5 road games as a favorite. Jeremy Guthrie (7-9, 5.21) has only allowed more than 3 earned runs just once over 10 home starts this season and I look for him to have a solid start at home tonight. Take the Baltimore Orioles as my MLB Free Play for Friday night. Vernon Croy massive 24-13 MLB Run continues Friday night with his biggest MLB AL play of the month. Get on Vernon Croy's 5* MLB AL Game of the Month that is backed by a full in-depth report so you can bet with confidence Friday night. | ||
| MLB | Jul 31 Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers -1½+117 at 5DIMES | > 3h. |
| FREE PLAY 1 Unit on Texas Rangers -1.5 +117 The Rangers crushed the Mariners 7-1 last night to improve to 4-0 at home against them this season and 7-3 in all meetings. I expect this domination to continue as the M's just don't have the fire power to compete. The M's are averaging just 3.9 runs per game on the road while the Rangers are scoring 5.4 runs per game at home on the season. Seattle is only 3-14 revenging a road blowout loss vs. an opponent of 6 runs or more over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 3.6 to 5.8. Texas is 17-6 in home games against left-handed starters this season, winning by an average score of 6.3 to 3.4 in these games. Lastly, Padilla is 12-4 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons, with the Rangers winning by an average score of 6.4 to 4.1 in these spots. Cash in with the Rangers on the run line. | ||
| MLB | Jul 31 Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates +113 at 5DIMES | > 2h. |
| The Washington Nationals will pay a visit to the Steel City for a four-game series versus the host Pittsburgh Pirates beginning Friday with the first pitch set for 7:05PM Eastern Time. Washington enters tonight’s contest off a 7 to 3 loss at Milwaukee on Thursday while the Pirates had the day off after losing in extra innings (10) at San Francisco 1 to 0 on Wednesday. The Nationals are 1-5 their last 6 versus the Pirates and 12-36 (-18.0) on the road this season. Washington will send John Lannan to the bump with his 7-7 record and ERA of 3.25 on the season. He has struggled on the road going 3-6 this season with an ERA of 5.51 and the Nationals are 5-15 his last 20 starts on the highway. Washington is 1-13 (-11.7) on the road versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs per game in the second half of the season the last 2 seasons. The host will send right-hander Ross Ohlendorf to the hill with his 8-8 record and ERA of 4.51 on the year. Ohlendorf has been solid at home posting a record of 6-2 with an ERA of 3.39 and the Pirates are 8-2 behind him at home. Pittsburgh is 4-0 their last 4 at home versus a left-handed starter, 5-0 when Ohlendorf is installed as a home underdog and 26-19 for +7.5 units at home this season. We are getting solid value with the host as they are the better team and installed as an underdog, take Pittsburgh on Friday night. Graded Selection: 2* Pittsburgh Pirates 4 Washington Nationals 2 ****Robbie won his MLB 6* Game of the Year with the NY Mets and Johan Santana 7 to 0 over the Rockies and he also won his MLB Underdog play of the day with the White Sox all on Thursday. Make sure to join him on Friday for his MLB Report. | ||
| MLB | Jul 31 Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Kansas City Royals +215 at SIA | > 2h. |
| Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Kansas City as they travel to face TB set to start at 7:38 EST. Tb in a series of poor roles. Note that they are 11-16 (-11.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season; 14-18 (-10.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season. KC is a nice 102-116 (+35.1 Units) against the money line after having lost 18 or more of their last 25 games since 1997. This angle is analogous to playing Black Jack and losing slightly more hands than won and still walking out of the casino with a profit equivalent to winning 35 more hands than losing. This is just one minor example of how the AiS identifies dogs that have a very strong probability of winning. TB is not playing well right now and may be feeling the after effects of the big NYY series. They are just 3-4 batting 209 over their past 7 games. Opponents are averaging 5.7 RPG over this same span. KC starter Ponson is coming off his best start of the year throwing 6 innings allowing ZERO earned runs on 5 hits against Texas. Rays starter Price is an incredible talent, but he has not pitched well over his last 3 starts sporting a 6.60 ERA and a poor 1.733 WHIP. In his last start at Toronto, Price went just 3 innings allowing 6 ER on 9 hits with 3 home runs, He has allowed 23 hits and 11 ER in his last 3 starts spanning 15 innings. Also, just 2 quality starts all season! He has strong tendencies as well for day/night starts. In day starts he is 3-0 sporting a 3.38 ERA while an imperfect 0-4 with a robust 7.86 ERA in night starts. He also has allowed a 415 batting average during his first 15 pitches. Take KC. | ||
-=TOP PLAY=-
| MLB | Jul 31 Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates +115 at SIA | > 2h. |
| It's hard to even consider backing the Nationals on the road as a favorite, under any circumstances. They have their best pitcher in John Lannon on the hill, but it begins and ends there. The Nats, even with Lannon on the mound are still just 3-6 in his nine starts on the road. The Nats have been the worst road team against righthand pitching, perhaps of all time. They come into this one with an 11-51 mark in their last 62 games - not numbers that exude confidence with a favorite. Russ Olendorf has been steadily improving for the Pirates as they have now won five straight home starts with him as a home dog. It looks like a live dog here, so I'll go with the Pirates here. | ||
| MLB | Jul 31 Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox -115 at SPBOOK | > 2h. |
| Craig split with his top plays yesterday going 1-1! Won the MIL r/l but lost a tough one with the NYY blowing it late. Today Craig has two 5 star top plays: GRAND SLAM PLAY and NL Play of Day!! Get in now and parlay them together!! BOS -115: Smoltz has not been his normal self yet as he is still getting stronger from his injury. But he has glimpses of greatness within a game. Today is the day where Smoltz puts together a really nice game. Also BOS has won 8 of 10 from BALT this year. BOS has snapped out of the hitting slump and today will put up a ton of fireworks. On the other side BALT is just young and not very good they have only won 3 games in last 11. Guthrie goes for them today and he has given up 5 ER in his last outting a week ago verse this same team. BOS owns him and will make another easy BOS win. SCORE BOS 9 - BAL 4 | ||
| MLB | Jul 31 Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox -113 at 5DIMES | > 2h. |
| Boston starter John Smoltz has a better than 4 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. Boston is 24-10 vs. AL East teams. The Red Sox are 32-15 in Game 1 of a series and they are 4-1 their last 5 Friday games. Baltimore starter Jeremy Guthrie has more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts. Baltimore is 17-47 vs. AL East teams. The Orioles are 0-8 in Game 1 of a series and they are 6-15 on Friday. PLAY ON BOSTON - (Smoltz vs. Guthrie) | ||
| MLB | Jul 31 Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox -116 at BOOKM | > 2h. |
| Boston @ Baltimore 7:05 PM EST Play On: Boston (Smoltz/Guthrie) Listed Boston comes in with a 59-42 record on the season while Baltimore has a 44-57 record this year. Boston bullpen has a 3.21 ERA overall this year and a 3.21 ERA on the road this season. Boston is 32-14 overall vs Baltimore the past 3 years including 8-2 vs Baltimore this season. Guthrie is 1-3 overall vs Boston since 1997 and his team is now 2-7 overall vs Boston during those starts. Orioles are 17-47 in their last 64 vs. American League East. Red Sox are 61-27 in the last 88 meetings in Baltimore. We'll recommend a small play on Boston tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky | ||
| MLB | Jul 31 Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates +115 at SIA | > 2h. |
| Free Play for July 31, 2009 1 Unit on Pittsburgh Pirates +115 The Pirates are showing excellent value in the home underdog role tonight. The Pirates are a solid 26-19 at home this season while the Nats come in with a very poor 12-37 road record. Pittsburgh has won 3 of 4 meetings against the Nats this season and all have been in Washington so I expect this domination to continue in Pittsburgh tonight. While Lannan has been good for the Nats this season, the road has not been nearly as kind. He is just 3-6 away from home with an ERA of 5.51. Plus, Lannan is 0-3 against the money line when starting against Pittsburgh in his career with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.500. The Bucs should be in good hands with Ross Ohlendorf on the hill tonight as he is 6-2 with an ERA of 3.39 at home this season (8-2 against the money line in his 10 home starts). The Pirates are 5-0 in Ohlendorf's last 5 starts as a home underdog and 5-0 in his last 5 home starts period while the Nationals are 5-15 in Lannan's last 20 road starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts during game 1 of a series. Bet the Bucs. | ||
| MLB | Jul 31 Arizona D-Backs vs. New York Mets | New York Mets -102 at BODOG | > 2h. |
| Free Play for 7/31/09 1 Unit on NY Mets -102 The Mets have won 5 of 6 and I like them to stay hot against the lowly D-backs at home tonight. The D-backs are just 2-7 in Davis' road starts this season and he has really struggled of late, posting an ERA of 9.49 over his last 3 starts. In all, the Diamondbacks are just 5-18 in Davis' last 23 road starts. The Mets are an outstanding 29-10 in their last 39 home games vs. a team with a losing record and Hernandez has held his own against weak team as well. In fact, the Mets are 6-2 in Hernandez's last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Diamondbacks are just 7-19 in the last 26 meetings. Bet the Mets. | ||
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